Their Lesson 2 map has a missing layer, and today they find it. Students become water security advisors — wagering rainfall estimates before the data lands, opening four real WA case files, and discovering why the driest resource region in the state runs on a pipe built in 1903.
Anchor them: Perth gets about 730 mm a year. Then estimates locked, with a confidence rating, for Broome, Marble Bar and Kalgoorlie — before any teaching. The reveal (BoM long-term averages): Broome ≈ 615, Marble Bar ≈ 360, Kalgoorlie ≈ 265.
Three ideas on one map: where water sits (the tropical north, the east coast, the south-west corner — and the dry heart), who it’s shared between (not where the mines are — hold last lesson’s map beside a rainfall map and let the mismatch do the teaching), and when it arrives (rivers that are dust in September, dangerous in February).
Four evidence cards, face down: the shrinking South West dams, the giant-in-the-wrong-place Lake Argyle, the 1903 Goldfields pipeline, and the Pilbara’s hidden groundwater. For each: predict first in the handout, then open the file, then confirm or revise. Close with the Advisor’s Verdict — rank all four for the next fifty years.
Prove “average is a liar” using Broome; one source-and-region from memory; a prediction for next lesson (where does a Pilbara mine get millions of litres a day?); and the calibration check — how many “sure” estimates were actually close? Instinct versus data is an advisor’s first lesson.